It Might Be Time For Danielle Smith To Resign

OCTOBER 3rd, 2026 | RYAN TYLER

For the first time in its history, Alberta is close to deliberately electing an NDP government. Unlike the 2015 accident, which resulted from a massive split down the middle for conservative voters, 2027 is looking like an NDP majority that will happen on purpose. The latest by-election in Calgary-Shaw should be a wake-up call to all conservative voters.  On top of that, one of the province's most reputable pollsters, Janet Brown, is showing a tie between the UCP and NDP. 

The important caveat for the latest by-election, however, is the low turnout. In that by-election, the NDP was down nearly 3,000 votes from the 2023 provincial election, while the UCP was down around 7,000. Overall, the turnout in Calgary-Shaw was down almost 9,000 votes. If the mathematics are taken at simple, face value, we can assume that most of the voters who stayed home were conservatives. There is no clear evidence from the Calgary-Shaw by-election that the NDP actually made any real, legitimate gains in Calgary. 

Either way, the numbers from Janet Brown are ominous. They, too, don't show much for gains when it comes to the NDP. Instead, the numbers show a steep decline for the UCP. That decline is where the real danger is for Albertans. 

When it comes to the decline in UCP support, there is only one person to blame: the party leader. 

From the start, Danielle Smith was a polarizing candidate. Her election to the party's leadership could be to blame for the real gains the NDP made in Calgary in 2023. Since then, things seem to have only gotten worse for the UCP under her leadership. Smith's sovereignty referendum hasn't helped the situation. Although she has made her support for staying in Canada clear, the media and Nenshi have used it as ammunition. And, when it comes to giving your opponents ammunition, conservatives should know better.  The media will never be on their side. 

Few people will understand the necessity in finally addressing the separatism question. If Smith's intention was to finally get it out of the way, she should be commended, not condemned. However, we know how politics works and we know Naheed Nenshi. 

Perhaps Danielle Smith is sacrificing herself for the future of Alberta. Maybe she intends to step aside after Alberta's referendum, making herself the martyr in Alberta's story.  In any case, it is unlikely that she'll recover from any of this. If she stays on and carries the UCP into the 2027 provincial election, she'll probably lose and Alberta will get its first intentionally elected NDP government. If she resigns immediately after the October referendum, the UCP will have time to re-juvinate its spirit and rebuild some enthusiasm in time for 2027. 

The sooner Smith resigns, the sooner the UCP can start preparing for the 2027 election, which will be less than 12 months away. 

Setting a leadership election for late winter in early 2027, or even before Christmas this year, would be ambitious. The more realistic timeline puts a leadership vote somewhere near early spring 2027, but that gives any new leader only a few months to prepare for the upcoming election. Either way, it means Danielle Smith needs to announce her resignation before the end of this month. Anything later only delays the process of getting a new leader elected in time. 

As for replacements, Travis Toews comes to mind. He finished second behind Smith in the party's 2022 leadership race. He offered a fairly simple, straight-edged alternative to Smith. Had she not ran for the leadership, he would have been premier. Another name that comes to mind is Rebecca Shulz.  Deputy premier, Mike Ellis, may also be a good candidate to unite the Wildrose and old Progressive arms of the party. 

Two candidates I would vehemently oppose are Brian Jean and Jason Nixon. But hey, you do you. I won't vote for the UCP under their leadership and I'm sure a lot of conservative voters might agree. Neither of those candidates give the UCP an advantage in 2027.

As for Naheed Nenshi, the guy is a lying, sniveling scoundrel. Anything he says should first be met with doubt, then dismissal. He spent a majority of his time as mayor lying, manipulating, and playing dirty politics. He should be expected to do the same as premier. 

If Danielle Smith can somehow turn things around after this month, she migt have a chance. I wouldn't put all my eggs in one poll's basket. However, what I'm seeing for NDP traction on social media, combined with the Calgary-Shaw election, points toward an advantage for the NDP over a UCP led by Smith. 

What does a Smith resignation accomplish? A win-back of voters that have left for parties like the New Progressive Conservatives. It offers a chance for the UCP to prove it can represent all factions of conservatism in Alberta.