How Smart Are Alberta Separatists? We'll Know Next Year

OCTOBER 23rd, 2026 | RYAN TYLER

Alberta's referendum about holding a referendum failed miserably for those hoping to send Ottawa a message.  It was a predictable outcome, but it was a discussion that needed to be had. Separatist talk has been boiling in Alberta for over a decade, and finally addressing the issue was a step in the right direction. However, the separatists who lost are now threatening to boycott the UCP and Danielle Smith.  If they succeed at diminishing UCP support, their province will fall under the control of woke socialists looking to stifle resource production and bring gender ideology back into schools.

Danielle Smith addressed an issue no other premier would have thought about addressing. She finally put the separatist question to the people and got an answer. For that, everyone is mad.

The pro-Canadians are mad that we had the discussion at all, while the separatists are mad it didn't go their way and that the UCP has declared it "case closed".  The chances of Smith making it to the next election are now based on two things: whether things will improve and make the 2027 election winnable with her as leader, or whether they won't. If things don't improve, Danielle Smith's own selfishness will determine whether she steps down. 

If Naheed Nenshi becomes Alberta's next premier, it will be on Danielle Smith. 

However, we need to address the real problem at hand. What about the frothing separatists who have helped divide conservative voters in Alberta? If Alberta elects a scoundrel like Nenshi, can all the blame fall squarely on Danielle Smith and the UCP, or should separatists be held partly accountable?

The funny thing about what polls are showing is the clear picture they paint of what is actually happening.  The latest polls, minus one outlier that deviates radically, show that the NDP have not gained any real ground with voters. Even the Calgary-Shaw byelection results tell us the same thing: support for the NDP has not grown. 

The UCP has declined.

For the past two elections, the NDP has been where they need to be for a majority government. The only thing stopping them has been Alberta conservatives. Like always, it is only through dividing Alberta conservatives that a party like the NDP can win at all. In 2015, it was conservatives disagreeing on basic principles, cronyism, and the role of government. One side was too stubborn to pick the devil they knew, the other side was too stubborn to try something new. As a result, Alberta ended up with an NDP government.

In 2027, separatists will skim enough support from the UCP to pass the province back to the NDP, but not enough to elect any new parties that represent their cause.  Sadly, the one thing that will drive them will be the delusion that they can elect some sort of new alternative. The same delusion possess the minds of federal PPC voters. Another side of the separatist team will know they can't win, but they'll be motivated solely by sticking it to the UCP. Another fraction will run on "muh principles!".

What's even more sad? This is normal behaviour among right-leaning voters, not just in Alberta, but across most of Canada. 

Some will call this a symptom of not being a bunch of homogenous, compliant sheep like those on the left, others might call it plain stupidity and an ignorance about how everything really works. I tend to agree with both assessments, but the latter is the most true. With my own eyes and ears, I have witnessed PPC voters get excited about Maxime Bernier becoming prime minister and winning a landslide victory. This was common in the 2021 election off the heels of the pandemic. Unfortunately, it was purely delusional and stupid. 

I anticipate many separatists will do the same thing in 2027. 

Thinking the Wildrose had a chance in 2015 was as dumb as thinking the PPC had a chance in 2021. Although the Wildrose did have better numbers, anyone who knew anything about anything knew they couldn't win a majority. Thinking some other party has a chance in 2027 will be an exhibition of the blatant ignorance about our electoral system that circulates among Alberta conservatives. 

Is Canada broken? Yes, almost beyond repair. Is there a 20% chance Canadians will smarten up and start extracting their resources long term and building their "country" into a real global superpower? Yes. Threatening to leave Canada with something closer to 40% rather than 25% would have been a good result for Alberta and Canada. But, at the end of the day, Albertans are as blind and feeble as the rest of the country. 

You can be mad, sad, or whatever you want about my assessment. Deep down, you know it's true.

It took Donald Trump and some American hostility to wake up a portion of this country to the reality they have been living in, but we know it won't last long. Once normalcy returns and Democrats take back control, Canadians will be back to their old selves within a few short years. They'll go back to hating Canadian oil and loving Saudi oil, while protesting any new mines, data centres, pipelines, and economic progress. In no time, Canadians will be back to living off the American dream. 

Separatists can at least take comfort in knowing that nothing lasts forever. History teaches that nations simply do not stay together. In a few generations, Alberta might be its own country and Canada will be just another place that once existed on a map. This isn't some made up idea, it's the cyclical nature of human societies.